“De bello libico”. Alle radici del caos nel Paese
Nelle ultime settimane l’Osservatorio ha raccontato in maniera ampia e dettagliata le principali crisi che nel quadrante mediterraneo e mediorientale mettono a repentaglio la stabilità delle relazioni internazionali.
Oltre al braccio di ferro Usa-Iran, il principale campo di interesse dei nostri studi è stata la crisi libica. Sulla Libia, oggi, vi proponiamo un estratto del recente paper del giovane e preparato analista Leonardo Palma, studente di Relazioni Internazionali all’Università di Roma-Tre e collaboratore della prestigiosa Salisbury Review, dedicato alla prima fase della guerra civile libica seguita alla morte del colonnello Gheddafi. Una lettura estremamente consigliata per capire la genesi dell’attuale stato di tensione nell’inquieto Paese nordafricano.
“Libya est omnis divisa. After the death of Gaddafi and the fall of his regime, Libya went through a relatively calm period, characterized by a low-intensity conflict between militias and former loyalists that lasted until the elections of July 2012. The latter saw the rise to power of the Islamist parties. Post-Gaddafi Libya reflected only partially the pre-revolutionary conditions, questioning North-African tribalism while enhancing a series of self-powered dynamics. The cohesion of local societies was one of the main reasons why the 2012 elections could take place in almost total tranquillity, despite the pervasive presence of armed groups. Unity, however, began to crumble in the absence of an external threat, i.e. Gaddafi’s regime. Competitiveness between groups arouse and consequence was local fragmentation. Libyan tribes indeed, never represented a unitary actor, rather an ideal reference to which various provincial leaders appeal to mobilize the masses.
Today, there is a clear overlap between the Italian and French interests, especially in Africa, and this leads to the rise of enmities at the expenses of both countries. In so doing, they’re losing the sight on the real problem in Libya. It is not only a matter of oil & gas, prestige, influence, migration, and security. Libya is the center of gravity of a sub-regional system: a worsening in the condition on the ground may trigger a spillover effect all over North-Africa. Since 2013, Egypt is striving to not collapse, Algeria is facing a dangerous transition as Tunisia and Sudan. Chaos in Libya is just the sick manifestation of deeper changings ongoing in the Middle East after the Arab Uprisings. We do not know if the generations that participated in the Uprisings will grow up to be truly reformist and able to solve regional problems such as power, modernity, State, tribes, oil, women, education, religion. But insofar this generation is growing up and the old regimes are trying to survive and overcome the security dilemma in which they’re trapped in, the Europeans cannot leave the initiative in Africa to China, India, Russia and Gulf States. Problem in Libya it is not France or Italy or General Khalifa Haftar. The two main issues are: 1) the disengagement of the US from the Mediterranean basin that hinder any possible international diplomatic solution 2) the proxy-war between UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey”.
Leggi la versione francese su Le Grand Continent à “Pourquoi la Libye est-elle prête à exploser?”
Scarica da Academia.edu la versione inglese à “De bello libico. An Historical Assessment of the Second Libyan Civil War (2012-2017)”